Andy Harris survived another blue wave. But what now?

By Cat Murphy

CAMBRIDGE — For the second time in eight years, Republicans found themselves staring down a blue wave. And for the second time in eight years, U.S. Rep. Andy Harris (R-1st) proved he could swim.

“The blue wave did not hit the 1st Congressional District,” Harris told a group of reporters at his private watch party in Cambridge Tuesday night, as early returns signaled an all but certain victory for Maryland’s lone Republican member of Congress.

An eight-term incumbent and hardline conservative, Harris had been overwhelmingly favored to beat Democratic challenger and political newcomer Dan Schwartz — it was more a question of by how much.

But as Democrats across the country made historic gains in traditionally deep red areas, Harris’ race didn’t prove to be particularly close. While Harris’ overall margin of victory will likely be smaller than it was in 2024, he still appears poised to win by several points.

As of Friday, Harris led Schwartz by a 53-46 margin — his closest race since winning the office, but still a comfortable lead. Schwartz conceded on election night.

Harris has other issues, though. Despite winning reelection this cycle, he is now facing the prospect of partisan redistricting.

Amid a nationwide redistricting battle, Maryland voters on Tuesday passed Question 3, a constitutional amendment that gives state lawmakers more latitude over how congressional maps are drawn.

Moore wants new congressional maps for Maryland after Question 3 victory

With Democrats in control of the governorship and both chambers of the Maryland General Assembly, Question 3’s passage may set the stage for a redistricting effort that could put Harris’ seat in danger come 2028. Harris knows there’s very little he can do about it.

Question 3 did not get majority support in any of the 10 counties fully encompassed within Harris’ Eastern Shore district, despite receiving 60% of the vote statewide, according to a Capital News Service analysis of state election results.

Harris said he believes his constituents “should be very worried” about a Democratic redistricting push, but he said he’s hoping that the Maryland General Assembly “does the right thing.”

“I think the rest of Maryland should pay attention to what the Eastern Shore thought,” Harris said. “Because they’re the ones who are going to be affected by it.”

Harris may have a more immediate political problem in the House Freedom Caucus.

Harris, who has chaired the hardline GOP ideological faction since 2024, told CNS Tuesday that he believes the Freedom Caucus “will come back probably bigger than ever.”

But election returns on Thursday pointed to the caucus’ membership roster looking noticeably different, and likely shorter, in the next Congress.

The caucus had gone into Election Day already knowing that at least seven of its members would be departing. That included six members who chose to run for other elected positions, only two of whom ultimately won.

With only 24 of the Freedom Caucus’ 31 members seeking reelection to the House and six nonincumbent candidates running with the caucus campaign arm’s endorsement, even a best-case scenario was unlikely to maintain the current membership level.

Democrats, though, easily beat four of those candidates, ousting incumbent Freedom Caucus member U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., and defeating caucus-backed GOP nominees in Nevada, Texas and Florida. Between campaign contributions and independent expenditures, the caucus poured a combined $3.78 million into those races alone.

Three other Freedom Caucus members whose races have not yet been called as of Thursday afternoon remain within a point of their opponent. One such member, U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais, R-Tenn., trailed his Democratic challenger by 280 votes in a district Trump won by 24 points two years ago.

An analysis of races where almost all votes had been counted found that districts voted an average of 15 points more Democratic compared to 2024 when a Freedom Caucus candidate was on the ballot.

The departures, losses and shrunken margins come as the Freedom Caucus also prepares to undergo a change in leadership. Harris, who is term-limited as chair, declined to endorse a successor but said the caucus will elect a new chair in December.

Harris spoke to reporters around 9:40 p.m. Tuesday, just after early returns elicited a round of jubilant applause from guests at his watch party. The Associated Press wouldn’t officially declare Harris the winner for another two hours, but as he stood to thank the room of clapping supporters, it was clear that no blue wave would be crashing on the Eastern Shore.

“We’ll let this election go by,” Harris told CNS Tuesday. “We’ll figure out what to do.”

– Capital News Service is a student-staffed reporting service operated by the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Stories are available at the CNS site and may be reprinted as long as credit is given to Capital News Service and, most importantly, to the students who produced the work.