Finding the right fit for the next House speaker

Four House Democrats who were instrumental in drafting and circulating a letter last week that successfully called for a new Illinois House speaker issued another letter the next day aimed partly at the now-departing chamber leader and his internal organization: Back off.

After noting that House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch had helpfully folded his tent quickly and dropped out of the race, the letter pointed out that Democrats now have lots of time for a “deliberate and intentional” process of selecting the new chamber leader. Reps. Mary Beth Canty, D-Arlington Heights; Kelly Cassidy, D-Chicago; Tracy Katz Muhl, D-Northbrook; and Larry Walsh, D-Elwood, sent the new letter.

The one thing the four definitely do not want is interference from Welch and those around him.

“We must ensure our next Speaker is able to take the time necessary to earn the support of our caucus members, without interference or a finger on the scale from the current Speaker’s operation,” the four warned.

Rumors have been flying lately about Welch lining up a successor. The four letter persons do not want a repeat of the behind the scenes handoff that moved the speaker’s gavel from departing House Speaker Michael Madigan to Welch six years ago.

Several House Democrats also tell me they want no more to do with Welch’s top campaign staff, consultants, etc. Members have been complaining about that problem for at least a couple of years now, and the problem and disagreements seem to be growing.

The four House Democrats argued in their letter that the chamber needs a new leader who can build consensus.

“New leadership must work thoughtfully and conscientiously to build a consensus for how we can best serve the needs of the people of Illinois.”

The current system automatically enforces consensus from above by, among other things, requiring members to prove they have locked up 60 floor votes before they can move to the actual floor.

Frankly, I’m having a difficult time finding disagreement with any of this stuff. Stop repeating mistakes is never bad advice.

My assistant Isabel compiled some numbers last week and found that the Democratic caucus will have at least 52 women out of 83-84 members (depending on who wins) when everyone is sworn in for another General Assembly.

Illinois has never had a woman speaker. The last two speakers were damaged by staff/member sexual harassment allegations.

I think Katz Muhl, one of the four letterpeople (sorry, it’s the only moniker I could come up with), has a sound approach.

Katz Muhl told Isabel she was looking forward to a “robust process” of selecting a new speaker.

“There are so many talented senior leaders in our caucus. I think about people who have mentored new legislators, who have taught us how to negotiate better, how to build coalitions.” She then added, “and I especially think about women.”

Rep. Natalie Manley, D-Joliet, a Welch letter signatory, said the gender of the next speaker wasn’t that important to her. “Whether we chose a man or woman doesn’t matter, what matters is character and the ability to work with every member and to make difficult decisions that are necessary for the good of the entire state.”

Both can be right, and I think they are.

The House Black Caucus has for years had enough votes to block any bill from passage if members stuck together. But the Black Caucus may have lost its internal veto power.

The Black Caucus will be picking up two new districts come January, giving it 24 seats, according to Isabel’s count. Mary Catherine Roberson flipped a Republican seat by Danville as did George McClellan in the Metro East.

McClellan has close ties to Assistant Majority Leader Jay Hoffman, who ran for speaker the last time around and is not exactly a strong Welch ally. Black Caucus member Canty is among the four who want a new speaker to be independent from the current speaker.

All 24 Black Caucus votes, which probably can’t all be secured anyway, still wouldn’t be enough to stop a new speaker if the House Dems end up with 84 seats.

The only faction that looks big and cohesive enough to stop a new speaker from being rammed through is the 26 members who signed that Welch letter.

Of course, some outside groups like labor organizations might try to intervene for or against someone, but involving oneself too closely in this extremely internal task is fraught with risk — just ask Gov. JB Pritzker if he’d repeat his failed involvement in the last Senate president’s race.

In other words, everyone is going to have to work together.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.