NFL betting: Vikings’ pivot to Carson Wentz vs. Bills among Week 9 best bets

A quarterback crisis is hitting the NFL. It’s a league with too few great quarterbacks and too many mediocre and bad ones. It also does not appear there are many college prospects ready to come to rescue next season.

No team has been hit harder lately than the Ravens. With Lamar Jackson fading with age and injured, and Tyler Huntley also out with an injury Thursday, Baltimore was forced to start third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie from UConn. Fagnano played like he deserved to go undrafted, passing for 60 yards with two interceptions in the rain in a 33-10 loss to the Jaguars. The betting public was wise enough to jump all over Jacksonville as a 9.5-point road favorite. What’s interesting is Derek Stevens said sharp money was heavy on the Ravens at Circa Sports, which was a big winner for the night. Betting on Fagnano was a no-no.

Ironically, two undrafted rookies have started games this season, the first being Jalon Daniels for the Buccaneers, while No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza waits on the sideline for the Raiders. The Browns will start Shedeur Sanders, and the Eagles will start Joe Milton this weekend, and expectations are low for both young QBs. In a blast from the past, veterans Gardner Minshew (Cardinals) and Carson Wentz (Vikings) also will get starts. I will take a shot with one of those old timers in my best bets for NFL Week 9:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6)

In early September, Tampa Bay gave in to veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield, who agreed to a three-year, $165 million contract extension. That idea has gone from bad to worse. While the Bucs are certainly feeling some buyer’s remorse, the deal was a steal for Mayfield, who’s 2-3 as a starter. In the wins, Mayfield passed for only 64 yards against the Panthers before completing no passes in a 16-0 victory over the Falcons a week ago. On a rain-soaked day in Tampa Bay, the Bucs ran the ball 56 times for 324 yards while their defense forced four turnovers. Mayfield sometimes plays poorly, but he’s not one of the league’s bad quarterbacks. He’s nowhere near elite, either.

Caleb Williams is becoming elite for the Bears. Against what was considered the league’s top defense, Williams passed for 247 yards and a touchdown in a 34-17 win at Seattle on Monday. The Bears also rushed for 126 yards, with D’Andre Swift running for 69 yards and three touchdowns. It looked too easy. It might not come as easily against Tampa Bay, which ranks No. 1 in the league in run defense (80 yards per game) and No. 5 in scoring defense (18.9 ppg).

I’ve always liked the angle of betting against a popular public team after an impressive Monday night win. Everyone watched the blowout and almost everyone loves the Bears now. And while I don’t like Mayfield that much, especially as a favorite, he’s typically tough as an underdog. Expect a tight game Sunday night in Chicago.

Best Bet: Buccaneers +6

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Minnesota Vikings

In the past five games with Kyler Murray at quarterback, Minnesota averaged 18.4 points. It was getting painfully difficult to watch the popgun offense, so the switch to Carson Wentz is a welcome change. Wentz is not going to walk into the huddle, turn into the 1999 version of Kurt Warner with the St. Louis Rams and transform the Vikings into “The Greatest Show on Turf.” But maybe Wentz will be more effective as a passer than Murray, who threw for five touchdowns in six games. Wentz had three TD passes in a 39-22 victory over the Packers in Week 1.

Buffalo has scored 24 points or more in all seven games. The Bills are road favorites in this battle of 6-1 teams because of Josh Allen, who has totaled 20 touchdowns (11 passing, nine rushing) and leads the league’s highest-scoring offense (33.3 ppg). Minnesota coordinator Brian Flores has the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (13.3). Something has got to give, and I’ll take the points Monday night.

Best Bet: Vikings +3

Three more plays for Sunday

Falcons +3 vs Bengals (Spain)

Saints -3 vs Browns

Panthers +3 (-120) vs Broncos