NFL betting, predictions: Commanders still worth play despite line move

Here are my NFL Week 9 best bets:

Washington Commanders +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams

This number opened Rams -5.5 and has come down but is still worth a play at 4.5.

Yes, the Rams have won two games in a row, but neither beating a Raiders team that was exhausted after facing Kansas City, New England, Buffalo, and then the Rams in four consecutive weeks, nor beating the still winless Chargers convinces me that this team is right, especially QB Matthew Stafford, who ranks just 20th in EPA amongst qualified quarterbacks. He is also tied for fourth most interceptions thrown with eight.

The Rams do get Myles Garrett back this week, but they have had their fair share of injuries on both sides of the ball.

While defeating a depleted Philadelphia team is not all that impressive, Washington did look rejuvenated off its bye week with its most complete game of the season, and even at 2-4-1 is still right in the thick of the NFC East.

The Rams look fine statistically and metrics-wise, but this team is a far cry from being the preseason Super Bowl favorite, and the market is finally starting to notice.

Carolina Panthers (+3 -120) vs. Denver Broncos

Denver came back last week from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to defeat Kansas City. That victory brought the Broncos’ mark to 15-3 over the last two seasons and 5-0 this year in one-score games.

This team is winning games in spite of its quarterback Bo Nix, who ranks 33rd in the PFF grades for the position amongst qualified QBs, only ranking ahead of Tampa backup Jalon Daniels, Daniel Jones, and Justin Herbert.

How much longer can Denver keep getting away with it?

Carolina has lost its past two games but does have a rest advantage here and that has been highly beneficial this season. Teams with extra rest are 29-9 straight up and 27–10-1 against the spread (best ATS start since 1987 and best SU start in Super Bowl era). This is also Denver’s 10th consecutive game, and they have a bye week on deck, so this is a tricky spot for the Broncos.

Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

This line was Seattle -12.5 before Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury. Now the number is still hefty at -8.5 with Drew Lock as the starter, but here’s the thing. Drew Lock has been better than Sam Darnold this season.

Lock started in Week 2 against these same Arizona Cardinals and won 31-7 behind his 235 yards and 3 TD passes. He ranks 13th in EPA/play while Darnold ranks just 32nd. Lock ranks 6th in Success Rate; Darnold 25th.

It is understandable that bettors might be squeamish laying a big number to Arizona considering the Cardinals have already won three games outright as an underdog of at least 7 points this season and are the first team since the 1995 Jaguars to accomplish this in the first eight games of a season. Plus, Gardner Minshew gave the Cardinals offense a temporary boost in Arizona’s victory at Dallas last week. However, they were facing the Cowboys defense, which is the worst defense in the league in most metrics. This week is a dose of reality for Minshew. Now he is facing a Seattle defense that is No. 2 in Success Rate and No. 4 in EPA.

The Cardinals are also 0-5 ATS vs. Seattle under Mike Macdonald, failing to cover those games by an average of 12.4 points per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 at Chicago Bears

Chicago took it to the aforementioned Seahawks last week on Monday Night Football. The Bears look every bit of the Super Bowl contender, and they are being bet like it as well. Per BetMGM, 30 percent of the money over the last week has been wagered on the Bears to win the Super Bowl. The market has been like the “Superfans” on Saturday Night Live. “Da Bears. Da Bears. Bears. Bears.” When I read things like that, that is time to sell a little bit high on the Bears.

This week, Chicago gets Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football, and Bears head coach Ben Johnson is now 19-4-1 ATS in primetime games as a head coach or offensive coordinator.

Tampa Bay comes in off two consecutive victories, including a 16-0 shutout of Atlanta last week, where the Bucs became the first team to win an NFL game since 1974 with no passing yards (Joe Ferguson was QB for the Buffalo Bills in that victory). Baker Mayfield went 0-for-3 for zero passing yards, and the Bucs ran the ball 56 times out of 59 plays in tough weather conditions on a nasty, wet field.

While the Bears have yet to trail at any point in their last three games since Caleb Williams’ return, this is a big task for the offense. The Tampa defense is No. 1 in Total EPA and EPA/Play, No. 2 in EPA/Pass, and No. 4 EPA/Rush. Plus, the Bucs lead the league with 12 INTs and are second in forced fumbles with 14.

TEASER OF THE WEEK

Carolina +8.5/Seattle -2.5

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Las Vegas/San Francisco Over 51.5

BEST OF THE REST

New Orleans -3 (-115) vs. Cleveland

N.Y. Jets +10 (-115) at Kansas City