NFL betting prediction: Bills’ offense might be too tough for Vikings to stop

The finale of Week 9 brings us a matchup between a pair of 6-1 teams on “Monday Night Football,” but those teams have gotten there in very different ways.

The Bills are 6-1 with a plus-52 point differential. The Vikings are 6-1 with a plus-47 point differential. How they’ve reached that point could not be more different.

The Bills have scored 233 points and allowed 181, while the Vikings have scored 140 points and allowed 93. Entering the week, the Bills led the NFL in points per game but ranked 23rd in points allowed per game.

Conversely, the Vikings comfortably led the league in points allowed per game but ranked 27th in points scored per contest. In these prime-time games, it often feels like the better offensive team comes out on top, but this is a fascinating matchup.

Nobody blitzes more than the Vikings. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores consistently puts opposing quarterbacks under pressure, and that’s a big reason his unit has forced 12 takeaways this season. The Vikings have 25 sacks in seven games and boast the league’s second-best third-down defense and top red-zone defense.

Josh Allen has been sacked only 13 times this season and is averaging 11.1 yards per completion. He is also averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 55 rushing attempts. His nine rushing touchdowns are among the NFL leaders. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Allen’s average time to throw of 2.91 seconds ranks just outside the top 10, so he’s received strong protection, and the threat of his legs has helped keep defenses honest.

The same can be said for James Cook, who is one of the league’s top running backs at more than 5 yards per carry. That is one area where the Vikings are vulnerable. Minnesota’s run defense entered the week ranked 24th in yards per carry allowed. The pass defense is as stingy as it gets because of the constant blitzing, but the run defense has shown some weaknesses. Buffalo is not the team you want exploiting those holes.

Many people will likely think Allen can solve the riddle that is Flores’ defense, but this is a game in which I would lean heavily on Cook. As of Sunday night, his over/under rushing yards prop was in the mid-80s across the sports betting market, and he was a betting favorite to score an anytime touchdown. Even though those are lofty numbers, I would still look to back his props.

Maybe Minnesota will benefit from a little addition by subtraction this week. Carson Wentz gets the start for the injured Kyler Murray. Wentz has thrown only 39 passes this season, but he has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, more yards per attempt and more yards per completion. On the other hand, he has also been sacked six times across one start and one relief appearance. Wentz also has a lower success rate than Murray because of those sacks.

While the Vikings are plus-7 in turnover margin, they entered the week ranked 28th in points per drive on offense. Despite numerous short fields created by turnovers, leading to a ranking of fourth in average starting field position, Minnesota simply does not score many points and lacks a particularly dynamic offense. The Vikings have three wins when scoring 16 points or fewer. They have also won three games while being outgained.

Pick: Holding the Bills to fewer than 20 points and winning the turnover battle both seem like major challenges. That’s why Bills minus-3 is the play for me.

NFL Game Day

Who: Buffalo (6-1) at Minnesota (6-1)

When: 5;15 p.m. Monday.

TV/streaming: ESPN, ESPN+

Latest odds: Bills by 3½.

Against the spread: Bills 5-2, Vikings 4-3.

Last week: Bills beat Ravens 36-10; Vikings lost to Lions 19-15.

Last meeting: Vikings beat Bills 33-30 in OT on Nov. 13, 2022, in Buffalo.

Series record: Vikings lead 9-6. Bills wins 2018, 2014, 2006, 2002.