Could the El Niño pattern this winter lead to more flooding?

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – Weeks of flooding reversed severe drought in parts of New Mexico, and that wetter ground could raise runoff and flood concerns when snow melts this spring.

NOAA’s latest outlook favors a wetter-than-average winter across the Southwest. The source material says a strong to very strong El Niño is expected to persist into early next year and steer the storm track toward the southern United States.

That setup improves the chances for moisture, but it does not guarantee a big mountain snowpack.

This fall’s rain already replenished some soil moisture. If that moisture lasts through winter, more snowmelt could become runoff.

That does not necessarily mean families should expect catastrophic flooding next spring, but it gives New Mexico more reason for concern than a typical year.

Major Rio Grande flooding hit during El Niño in 1941, and heavy snowmelt after the El Niño winter of 1973 strained Albuquerque’s levees.

Today’s flood-control system changes that picture, while the size of the snowpack and the speed of the melt will also matter.

A gradual thaw could provide months of valuable water, but rapid melting or heavy rain on snow could increase flood danger.

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