Record warmth possible this week before heavier rain reaches western Washington

This week’s weather is going to feel usually mild. The average high temperature in mid-November across much of western Washington is in the lower 50s, while lows are generally in the lower 40s.

High temperatures this week are expected to threaten record readings. The warmest day anticipated this week will be Wednesday, Veterans Day, with highs rising well into the 60s. The rest of the week is expected to have high temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to the lower 60s.

Low temperatures will also be quite moderate, dropping only into the mid-40s to lower 50s.

At Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), the record high temperature on Monday is 63 degrees, set in 1997. Tuesday’s record high of 65, established in 1990, is quite likely to endure.

But on Veterans Day, the record of 61 set in 2018 has a great chance of being broken with forecast highs in the lower to mid-60s. Skies on Wednesday are expected to be mostly cloudy with sunbreaks, offering fine mid-November weather for holiday activities.

Thursday, the record high at SEA is 62 degrees, established in 1997, and that record will be threatened.

Why so mild?

The relatively warm mid-November weather is being driven by generally southwest flow aloft from the North Pacific. The next weather system is expected to spread rain onshore late Monday into Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will offer a break in the rain before the next weather system moves rain onshore Friday into Saturday. This system has the characteristics of an atmospheric river and will offer a healthy dose of rainfall.

Rivers are running lower than usual for this time of year thanks to October being a drier month than average. Yet, this weekend’s weather system will add more water into the region’s rivers. The threat of flooding is low, yet rivers likely the Skokomish River in Mason County that are easier to reach flood stage could do so.

Rain

Rainfall totals with the weather system Monday night and Tuesday are forecast to be one to three inches along the coast and in the mountains. The rest of western Washington can expect roughly a half inch to one inch of rain.

For the storm on Friday into Saturday, the coast and mountains can anticipate a total of two to five inches of rain, while in the interior of western Washington, one to two inches of rainfall is expected.

With more leaves falling during these weather systems, authorities encourage clearing storm drains to help avoid ponding of water on roadways and creating local urban flooding.

Mountains

The ongoing mild weather will keep mountain snow levels quite high, above pass levels. Snow levels on Tuesday are expected to be around 8,000 feet. By Friday and Saturday, snow levels are forecast to be 6,000 to 7,000 feet.

Mountain pass highways should all have wet pavement for drivers going over the passes this week.

Winds

The weekend’s strong weather system produced peak wind gusts of up to 64 mph at Hoquiam Saturday evening. Wind gusts elsewhere in the interior of western Washington hit 45 to 55 mph, the strongest in the North Sound.

Altogether, the peak number of customers who lost power Saturday night was close to 70,000 across the region. Several local roads were blocked by fallen trees.

The weather systems due to arrive this week will produce some wind, but not nearly as strong as witnessed over the weekend. Wind gusts with each incoming weather system this week could reach 30 mph or so.