How Pete Ricketts ended the independent experiment in Nebraska’s US Senate race

LINCOLN — One year ago in a Lincoln bar, Dan Osborn and his campaign manager said Republican U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts would be a better fit as the opponent for their prairie populism pitch than U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer because they would be able to paint Ricketts as “an elite” who doesn’t care about the common person. 

Roughly a year later, unofficial election results show Osborn is on track to lose to Ricketts by the same margin as his unsuccessful bid against Fischer in 2024. Ricketts’ win emerged last week as one of the bright spots for national Republicans as other reliably-red states saw their Republican U.S. Senate candidates swept away by a blue tsunami, including states Trump won by double digits just two years ago. 

Texas, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina – states that seemed reliably Republican – went blue last week. Osborn, who had national attention in the months leading up to Election Day because his bid was seen as something that could be copied in red states, saw his race become more about him and less about the former governor.

Jessica Flanagain, a partner at Axiom Strategies and one of Nebraska’s most influential GOP political consultants, could see the 2006-style wipeout for Republicans coming in this year’s midterms. Her first-ever campaign was Ricketts’ 2006 bid. She saw him lose by roughly 26 points to Democrat Ben Nelson. 

Twenty years later, she vowed to make sure Ricketts wasn’t swept away and outran the terrible environment for Republicans. The GOP took Osborn’s bid more seriously than they did in 2024, spending every day of the campaign trying to paint Osborn as a Democrat.

“We also knew that wasn’t enough,” Flanagain told the Examiner. “We also had to undermine him on the authenticity front…our theory was that he’s not authentic. He’s no longer a mechanic.” 

She recalls often asking the Ricketts campaign, “How are we going to ruin Dan Osborn’s day today?”

Osborn faced multiple scandals amplified by Ricketts and Republicans, including questions about why he paid himself and his extended family for campaign work, an expenditure that is legal but often comes at a political price. There were also several Osborn audio leaks that Republicans promoted as “proof” he was a Democrat. The audio leaked to media outlets ranged from him saying Trump’s border wall is a “symbol of racism.” to profanity-laced jokes about a hypothetical Trump-supporting Red Cloud resident.  

In his victory speech on election night, Ricketts thanked his campaign for tracking Osborn, saying they were “able to expose” him as “the fraud that he is.”

University of Nebraska-Lincoln political professor Kevin Smith said partisanship was front and center for voters in the Senate race, with Osborn constantly playing defense and trying to prove he wasn’t a secret Democrat. 

“I think it ended up reminding voters, it’s like, ‘Yeah, we’re pretty mad at the Republican Party, but you know what? We don’t like the Democrats either,’” Smith said. “I think in other states, Democrats could speak with a more unified voice, tamp down the partisan issue, and try to pin an incumbent to an unpopular president and focus on the issues that everybody was worried about.”

One example of a unified front was in Texas, where U.S. Senator-elect James Talarcico and Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa often held events together, focusing on economic relief. 

Osborn and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lynne Walz didn’t campaign together. Nebraska Democrats did choose to step aside and not run their own candidate against Ricketts, instead letting Osborn be the incumbent’s main opponent. 

“Billy Bob in f—— Red Cloud”

Of the campaign’s audio leaks, the one that seemed to do the most damage to the Osborn campaign included his comments about hypothetical Trump-supporting Red Cloud residents. Red Cloud, located in far southern Nebraska, lies within the state’s 3rd Congressional District, one of the most conservative congressional districts in the country.  

In the audio, Osborn said, “Billy Bob in f—— Red Cloud, Nebraska, who lives next to the f—— Trump store as you pull into town and is waving the flag, all he knows is that he’s on the winning team…(Trump has) been so effective at taking Billy Bob and his wife Mary Jane or Mary Jo and telling them … you’re on the winning team. And that’s all they care about, because their lives probably suck so f—— bad.”

The national news media covered the leak. Osborn apologized multiple times, and eventually went out to Red Cloud to speak with residents there. The reaction to his visit was mixed. 

President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance also lent the power of their voices to the Ricketts campaign, hosting rallies in two 3rd Congressional District cities – Grand Island and North Platte, respectively – in the weeks before Election Day.

The Ricketts campaign handed out signs at the rallies that said “I’m Billy Bob!” and “I’m Mary Jane!” – a sign of how impactful the comments were for the race.

In the end, election results show Ricketts got a greater share of votes in the 3rd Congressional District than Fischer did in 2024. While Osborn made gains in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts, it wasn’t enough because of his worse 3rd District performance.

 Is the independent experiment over?

During his concession speech on election night, Osborn blamed the newly-formed Nebraska Working People Party for his loss. But even the votes cast for that party’s U.S. Senate candidate, Robin Richards, wouldn’t have been enough for Osborn to win.

Osborn’s campaign manager Camilo Vilaseca told the Examiner the lesson of the campaign is “the same ones that I think we had last time… working-class people deserve a seat at the table in whatever body it is that’s representing them, and that’s what people are looking for.” 

“That the big takeaway…is that is what matters to voters…So, continuing to be a voice and advocate for hardworking Nebraskans and hardworking Americans across the country is who Dan is and what I think resonates,” Vilaseca said. “Just because we weren’t able to win this time does not mean that that work will end…  We’re not taking the possibility of getting independents elected in places that are looking for that sort of representation is over either.” 

Other independents running for U.S. Senate also lost last week. South Dakota’s Brian Bengs lost by 21 points. Montana’s Seth Bodnar lost by 11 points.

Smith, the professor, said the results show there is likely a ceiling for an independent bid because Osborn “could not move the needle” from 2024, even in an unfavorable environment for Republicans. 

“If you can’t beat a Republican incumbent in a statewide race in that electoral environment, it’s hard for me to imagine an electoral environment in which (Osborn) could win,” Smith said. 

Flanagain said it’s “really hard in this polarized environment to run as an independent because you have to answer the questions: Who are you going to vote for for president? Who are you going to caucus with?” 

Osborn had vowed repeatedly he wouldn’t caucus with either party.

“Osborn was more successful as an independent because he had the Democrat machine behind him, but having the Democrat machine behind him is kind of what exposes him,” Flanagain said. 

She added that this cycle showed that Republicans can’t take red states for granted and the GOP can never rest and always has to be organizing.

An independent bid – from Osborn or any other candidate – could struggle with the first step of Osborn’s 2024 and 2026 bids: convincing a party to step aside and not nominate its own candidate. Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb told a Semafor reporter she doesn’t think she would “do it again in the future.”