Talking the Tropics w/Mike: Quiet Atlantic... Gulf *might* be an area to watch in long range

THE TROPICS:

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! ****

This blog is written & updated daily by *me* - Mike Buresh.

Tropics threats/impacts for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th. The peak of the season is September 10th.

The average date of the eleventh named storm of the season is October 2nd (10 so far)... first Atlantic hurricane avg. date is Aug. 11 (one this season so far - Isaias formed Oct. 7).

** Strong low pressure over the far Eastern Atlantic will move into Europe before any subtropical characteristics develop.

** Some forecast models are indicating possible tropical development over the Gulf &/or SW Atlantic later next week & beyond as a strong trough of low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast. A long time to watch & plenty of time for differing outcomes.

Strong wind shear has dominated much of the Atlantic Basin - especially south of about 20 degrees N. This is a hallmark of an El Nino season - see the “Buresh Blog” for more on our strong Pacific El Nino. There have been two seasons - since the mid 1800s - with zero Atlantic hurricanes - 1907 & 1914.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).

The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 6 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves - on average - become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression/storm/hurricane):

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blobs” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & - at times - across parts of Florida.

2026 names..... “Kyle” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear - typically the “enemy” of tropical systems:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:

Sea surface temps.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

This basin remains the more active area in ‘26 due to the strong El Nino.

Central Pacific:

“Pena”:

Hawaii satellite imagery:

Hawaii radar imagery:

Global tropical activity:

West Pacific:

“Cempaka””: