Commentary: Trump’s mass deportation has a hidden price tag for Arizona’s economy

A sharp increase in federal immigration arrests may have cost the U.S. hundreds of thousands of jobs last year, including jobs held by U.S.-born workers.

New research from the Brookings Institution estimates that increased Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests in 2025 were associated with approximately 668,000 lost jobs nationwide. The findings challenge the assumption that removing immigrant workers creates more job opportunities for everyone else.

For Arizona, the stakes are particularly high.

Immigrant Arizonans make up one of every six workers and contribute 15.2% of the state’s economic output, according to the Economic Policy Institute. In construction, immigrants account for more than one in four workers. In agriculture, that share rises to 37%, more than one in every three.

These are our neighbors, coworkers, friends and family members. Immigrant Arizonans build homes, care for patients, grow food and operate businesses that keep our communities running. When immigration enforcement disrupts their lives and livelihoods, the economic consequences can reach all of us.

Consider what happens when a construction company loses part of its workforce. Projects can stall, leaving electricians, supervisors, subcontractors and delivery drivers with less work. Home construction can slow at a time when Arizona desperately needs more affordable housing.

The economic consequences extend beyond the workplace. Immigrant households in Arizona earn approximately $39.4 billion annually, supporting local businesses through spending on groceries, housing, transportation, and other necessities. Arizona is also home to roughly 76,000 immigrant entrepreneurs, representing more than one in five entrepreneurs statewide.

When families lose income or businesses struggle to retain workers and customers, the consequences spread through local economies.

And the potential job losses are substantial.

EPI modeled the effects of a large-scale deportation program involving four million deportations nationwide over four years. Under that scenario, Arizona could lose approximately 141,000 jobs across its economy, including 62,000 held by U.S.-born workers. The construction industry alone could lose roughly 60,000 jobs — about one in five construction jobs in the Grand Canyon State.

These are projections, not jobs already lost. But they illustrate the magnitude of the economic risks Arizona faces.

Mass deportations also carry significant taxpayer costs: EPI estimates that Arizona taxpayers’ share of federal spending under its modeled deportation scenario could approach $4.8 billion, or approximately $2,000 per taxpayer. That’s equivalent to more than 20,000 schoolteachers’ annual wages.

Meanwhile, immigrant Arizonans contribute to the public services we all rely on. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, undocumented immigrants alone paid approximately $704 million in Arizona state and local taxes in 2022. Disrupting employment and economic activity also puts some of that revenue at risk.

These costs deserve particular scrutiny as Arizona grapples with housing affordability, workforce needs and funding for education and infrastructure.

Immigration policy is often debated in terms of arrests, deportations and border security. Those discussions rarely account for what happens to the wider economy when workers disappear from job sites, families lose income and businesses lose customers.

Economic research tells us those consequences are real and policymakers should take them seriously.

Behind every statistic are people who have built lives, raised families and contributed to the communities we share. Their economic security is connected to ours.

Arizona’s future depends on a strong workforce, thriving businesses, and stable communities. As federal immigration enforcement intensifies, policymakers must weigh its broader economic consequences alongside its stated objectives.

When policies destabilize the people and communities that help power Arizona’s economy, we all stand to pay the price.