With 25,000 more votes counted, Peltola, JKT and Begich near victory in Alaska election

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mary Peltola, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Republican U.S. House Rep. Nick Begich III came closer to clinching victory in Alaska’s general election as the Alaska Division of Elections added almost 25,000 ballots to the state tally on Tuesday night.

With 245,470 first-choice ballots counted, Peltola now leads incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan by 4,250 first-choice votes, or 48.8% to 47.1%. That’s an increase of more than 1,600 votes from Monday.

If the race goes to a ranked choice runoff between Peltola and Sullivan preliminary, partial data published by the Division of Elections and analyzed by the Beacon shows Peltola winning that matchup as well.

The Associated Press estimates about 84% of all ballots have been counted. A separate, independent estimate posted on Twitter found at least 37,000 votes remaining to be added to the statewide tally.  

In the governor’s race, Kreiss-Tomkins has 49.7% of the first-choice votes, ahead of three Republican competitors. In the U.S. House race, Begich has 48.8% of the first-choice votes, leading an independent challenger by a significant margin. 

In Alaska general election races, voters rank up to four candidates in order of preference. If a candidate in a particular race has more than 50% of the first-choice votes, they win.

If no candidate reaches that threshold, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and votes for them are transferred to their voters’ second choices.

The eliminations and redistributions continue until only two candidates are left. The person with the most votes wins.

Friday is the deadline for absentee ballots mailed from within the United States to arrive and be counted. Division officials have said to expect a significant update then. Additional updates are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

Preliminary ranked choice data indicates Senate lead won’t change

The Alaska Division of Elections is scheduled to perform its official ranked choice tabulation on Nov. 18, after the deadline for absentee ballots to arrive and still be counted. 

In preliminary, partial ranked choice tabulations by the Alaska Beacon using data published by the division on Tuesday, Sen. Sullivan gains 3,066 redistributed votes and Peltola gains 2,160, a net gain of 906 for Sen. Sullivan but not enough to overcome Peltola’s lead in first-choice votes.

The ranking data does not yet include 9,909 ballots from rural Alaska precincts where ballots are initially hand-counted. 

Two-thirds of the first-choice votes on those ballots went to Peltola, according to summary data published separately by the division, indicating that even after the ranked choice tabulation, Peltola will lead.

In addition, further ballot counting may help Peltola’s margin. The Democratic candidate has repeatedly gained more first-choice votes than Sullivan in ballots counted after Election Day; on Monday, she led Sullivan by 2,517 votes out of 219,342 cast, and that was an improvement over her 636-vote lead at the end of Election Day. 

Governor and US House leaders appear unlikely to change either 

In the governor’s race, Kreiss-Tomkins’ closest competitor is Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson, with 28.7% of the first-choice votes, followed by Republican Dave Bronson with 13.9% and Republican Treg Taylor with 7.3%.

Preliminary, partial ranked choice tabulations by the Beacon show that if Kreiss-Tomkins fails to top the 50% threshold by Nov. 18, he will easily receive the needed votes once the ranked choice runoff is used.

For the U.S. House race, Begich has lost a small bit of first-choice vote share since Election Day, when he was almost exactly at the 50% threshold. That indicates a ranked choice runoff will be needed, but his closest challenger, independent Bill Hill, has 40.9% of first-choice votes. Democratic spoiler candidate Eric Hafner, a man imprisoned in New York state for threatening federal officials, has 7.5% of the first choice votes. Libertarian Jim McDermott has 2.7%.

Preliminary, partial ranked choice tabulations show Begich winning once McDermott and Hafner are eliminated.

Hill — the candidate endorsed by the Alaska Democratic Party — ran a campaign that attempted to label Hafner a sham candidate and not a real Democrat. Ranked choice tabulations show Hill winning less than half of the second-choice votes from Hafner supporters.