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A developing area of low pressure will bring periods of rain to the tri-state from west to east beginning Thursday morning, with the greatest chance for precipitation from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

The system will linger nearby through Friday before finally pulling away toward Saturday. Get your umbrellas ready because this won’t be a quick-moving batch of showers.

We’re looking at a prolonged period of wet weather, with generally around half an inch to an inch and a half of rain expected across the region. Some locations could see more, particularly around urban areas where fallen leaves could clog up the drains, including the New York City metro region.

There is also the potential for some moderate downpours that could briefly become heavy, with isolated embedded thunderstorms Thursday afternoon around rush hour. Isolated rainfall totals could hit 3 inches.

Although widespread flooding is not currently expected to be a major concern, caution is recommended while driving due to the wet conditions and the possibility of some localized flooding. Winds will also pick up as the storm approaches. Expect increasingly breezy conditions Thursday, with gustier winds Thursday night into Friday. The strongest winds are expected over the waters, where marine conditions will deteriorate

Coastal flooding could become another concern

The heavy rain and gusty wind aren’t the only weather issues we’re watching.

Minor coastal flooding is also possible during the daytime high-tide cycles on Thursday and Friday. Some of the more vulnerable locations include the south shore back bays of western Long Island and portions of the southwestern Connecticut coastline.

The exact extent of any coastal flooding will depend on the storm’s track and the strength of the easterly winds pushing water toward the coast. For now, minor flooding is the primary concern, but communities should be prepared.

Yes, we’re STILL talking about snow?

While most of the tri-state will be dealing with cold, soaking rain, winter may make a brief appearance farther north and west of New York City.

As colder air works into the region, some of the rain could mix with wet snow in higher elevations, especially Friday as gusty, cold northwest winds usher in the coldest air we have seen since March. Because of this, areas north and west of the city, including parts of the Catskills, Poconos, northwest New Jersey, and the lower Hudson Valley could see the season’s first snowflakes fall.

At this point, any accumulation is expected to be minor, with limited impacts. Closer to the coast, including New York City and surrounding communities, this looks to be an all-rain event with little to no snow accumulation, while farther north and west, in the higher elevations of the lower Hudson Valley, 1-3 inches is possible.

So, no need to break out the snow shovels just yet! But it will be nice to spot the first few flakes of the season as they fall and decorate some of our northern and westernmost neighborhoods.

A chilly weekend is on the way

Once the precipitation stops falling early Saturday, temperatures will continue to drop, with feels-like readings in the upper 20s and lower 30s on Saturday morning. Temps stay in the 30s and 40s for most of the area.

As high pressure builds in throughout the day and weekend, a much drier stretch of weather will settle in for the start of next week. However, don’t expect a big rebound in temperatures, because they are forecast to run about 5 degrees below normal throughout the period, giving us a noticeably colder November feel.

The bottom line

Enjoy the sunshine and mild temperatures for today’s Veterans Day festivities! Keep umbrellas handy Thursday and Friday, while watching for possible coastal flooding. And don’t be surprised if a few snowflakes show up in the mountains north and west of the city while you dust off your winter coats and prepare for the cold temperatures ahead.