NFL betting, predictions: Don’t dismiss road team in Thursday night game

The New York Giants will be looking for a third consecutive victory when they host the Washington Commanders in the Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup.

Commanders vs. Giants analysis

The Commanders had covered in two straight games before a competitive non-cover in a 20-13 loss to the Rams last week. So, while the Giants will be billed as the hotter team entering this matchup, make no mistake: Washington is far from a pushover.

Over the past three weeks, the Commanders have been a top-10 defense in the NFL. During that stretch, Washington has posted an EPA per play allowed of minus-0.074, and the team ranks seventh against the pass at minus-0.090. The latter is especially interesting because the Commanders were stronger against the run earlier in the season.

Washington is starting to resemble a Dan Quinn defense, and that makes the Commanders difficult to pass up at plus-money odds.

The Giants have also been extremely tough to score against lately. New York ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (minus-0.166) over the past three weeks, so it has been getting stops as well.

The difference? The Commanders have Jayden Daniels while the Giants have J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy has done a decent job as New York’s starter, but he is a quarterback who prefers to operate behind a productive running game. Will he have that luxury against Washington?

Daniels, meanwhile, has the ability to create offense regardless of the opponent. This has not been the talented signal-caller’s best season, but he should welcome this matchup. Daniels rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns the last time he faced New York, and he left some opportunities on the field as a passer. This time, I expect him to take advantage.

Our betting splits show the Giants are the public side, drawing more than three-quarters of the bets as the line has moved from New York minus-1.5 to minus-2.5. We have also seen the total drop from 44 to 41 at Circa Sports.

Commanders vs. Giants player props

Lean: McCarthy Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Our OptaAI player prop projections page has hundreds of Week 10 options to consider, but McCarthy’s passing-yardage total stands out in this matchup. DraftKings has it at 210.5, while OptaAI projects him for just 188.86 yards. That is an edge of 12.8 percent on the under.

McCarthy threw for at least 243 yards in each of his first two games with the Giants, but he managed only 127 yards against the Eagles last week. It is possible that additional film has helped opposing defenses prepare for him, and he also appears likely to contend with challenging weather conditions Thursday.

Commanders vs. Giants Pick

Taking the points would be one option, but I am backing the Commanders to win outright. Washington is far from perfect, but these defenses appear comparable. That makes Daniels’ playmaking ability the key difference, and I trust him to lead the Commanders to a victory at MetLife Stadium.

Bet: Commanders moneyline (+118)