College football betting, prediction: Memphis has upper hand vs. South Florida

To Tampa we go for a game between contrasting teams, to say the least, as South Florida hosts Memphis in an intriguing matchup.

The Tigers have scored an average of 43 points per game in their seven wins. South Florida has averaged 29.8 points per game in its six wins and just 20 points per game in its five games against FBS opponents. The Bulls dropped 59 points on Delaware State but have yet to exceed 30 points against any other opponent. Will they have to do that to beat Memphis?

The total would suggest they don’t, considering the Bulls entered the week with a top-10 scoring defense, allowing just 15.1 points per game and a top-25 defense in yards per play at 4.84. I wrote back in August in our College Football Betting Guide that I really liked USF’s hiring of Josh Aldridge away from East Carolina as defensive coordinator. That was the first hire Brian Hartline made when he took the job, and it has paid immediate dividends.

Speaking of Hartline, many assumed the offense would be the story at USF under the former Ohio State offensive coordinator, wide receivers guru and standout player at the position in his own right. That has not been the case. It should be noted that the Bulls are the only team in the nation that has not thrown an interception, but Michael Van Buren Jr. and Luke Kromenhoek have combined for only seven touchdown passes in 217 pass attempts. The longest passing play of the season is just 42 yards.

D.J. Crowther has been solid as the feature back, but the Bulls are one of three teams without a play of 50-plus yards. Michigan and Akron are the others. The Wolverines just fired their offensive coordinator. The Zips likely won’t be far behind in making a coaching change. Few would have expected the Bulls to reach mid-November outside the top 100 in yards per play. Remove the game against Delaware State, and they’ve managed only 4.82 yards per play.

Usually, Memphis is much better defensively than it has been this season. The Tigers are barely inside the top 100 in yards per play allowed, but they have improved as the season has progressed. In five October games, all against American Athletic Conference opponents, Memphis allowed 5.28 yards per play. That was a significant improvement from the 6.53 yards per play allowed in nonconference games. What the defense does do well, however, is force turnovers. The Tigers have 18 takeaways and are tied for 23rd in turnover margin.

While USF has zero plays of 50-plus yards, Memphis has nine and entered the week tied for seventh nationally in that category. Only LSU, North Texas, Miami (Florida) and Oklahoma State had more plays of 10-plus yards entering the week. Conversely, USF was tied for 113th in that statistic.

Charles Huff, who previously coached running backs at Penn State, Mississippi State, Alabama and with the NFL’s Buffalo Bills, has a standout running back in Jalen Carter and another reliable contributor in Manny Covey. Carter is averaging 6.2 yards per carry, Covey 5.4, and the team as a whole is averaging 5.4.

Quarterback Marcus Stokes has thrown 25 touchdown passes and owns a 69.1 percent completion rate this season. Memphis is averaging 7.2 yards per play overall and 6.6 against conference opponents. In American Athletic Conference games, Stokes has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with all three interceptions coming in the Tigers’ 31-17 loss to Tulane. He has thrown for at least 306 yards in four conference games, including the Tulane loss.

Memphis vs. South Florida prediction

The Bulls have posted excellent defensive numbers, but this Memphis offense is a beast. The Tigers rank seventh nationally in yards per play. USF’s opponents have been FIU (96th), Army (41st), Delaware State, Bowling Green (130th), Temple (38th), UTSA (48th), Kent State (135th), UAB (131st) and East Carolina (116th) in yards per play entering the week. The Bulls scored 14 points in the final 3:13 to beat Army and suffered losses to Temple and UTSA. I’ll take my chances with Memphis here.

Pick: Memphis -3