CATCH-22: Cris Collinsworth, Mike Tomlin believe Bears built to go far

Analyzing the Bears with the help of 22 names, starting with …

Cris Collinsworth (1), the NBC color analyst who suffered through the Bears’ sloppy Sunday night — yet walked away a believer.

“I have a tough time deciding if I’m more impressed with the Bears because Caleb Williams (2) threw the four interceptions and they had five turnovers and they won,” he told me Wednesday. “Or am I worried about Caleb Williams because he had a bad night?”

He thinks it’s the former. Before Williams threw his first interception — to Bucs safety Tykee Smith (3) at the goal line — he’d started the game 11-for-16 for 145 yards, two touchdowns and a 136.7 passer rating.

“The first 20 minutes of that game, I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a quarterback play like that,” Collinsworth said. “He could have thrown the ball over his head backward and was going to get a completion of some kind.

“But I thought it got him right back into some of the bad habits that hurt him his rookie year ... fading away and throwing it up. Because he actually hit a couple of those like that.”

Despite the disaster Sunday, Williams is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in franchise history. His 95.4 passer rating is the best of any Bears quarterback at their season’s midway point since the league expanded to 17 games in 2021. (And yes, we’ve decided half of 17 games is nine. Call it sportswriter math).

NFL teams played 16 games per season from 1978-2020. Only five Bears quarterbacks who threw at least 100 balls then had a better passer rating through eight games than Williams does now. Only one had a better passer rating through seven games between 1961-77, when the league played 14 contests.

Here’s where it gets concerning. No one got better:

• Jim McMahon (4) had a 107.4 passer rating in the first half of 1984 — and appeared in two games in the second half because of injuries, totaling a 70.6.

• Erik Kramer (5) had a 101 in 1995 in the first half — and then an 85.8 in the second.

• Brian Hoyer (6) had a 98 at the midway point of 2016 — and missed the rest of the season with a broken collarbone.

• Jay Cutler (7) had a 95.8 in the first half of 2014 — and an 80.7 in the second.

• Rudy Bukich (8) had a 113.7 passer rating in the first half of 1965— and a 81.4 in the second half.

Only Mitch Trubisky (9) came close to duplicating his first-half success, following a 96.1 in the Bears’ first eight games of 2018 with a 94.4 in the team’s final eight.

“I think [Williams] just needs to continue what he’s been doing,” Mike Tomlin (10), the Steelers coach-turned NBC analyst, said Wednesday. “Certainly it wasn’t his night the other night against Tampa. But if you just look at the larger picture and trends once he’s come back from injury. They’re up over 30 points per game [the last four games], he’s playing with great confidence. I think he’s still confident in those that he plays with. So I just think it’s upward and onward.”

Helping from the other side of the field is …

Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons (11), for whom the Bears gave up two first-round picks and a third-rounder last month.

“Even though he’s on the other side of the ball, I think it raises the tide for all parties involved,” Tomlin said.

Collinsworth’s main question about the Bears before Sunday centered around Jaylon Johnson (12), who has Pro Football Focus’ third-worst coverage grade among cornerbacks who have played half their snaps this season.

The Bears will give Johnson extra help now that they don’t have to blitz so often. That showed up Sunday, when he intercepted Baker Mayfield (13) and returned the ball 67 yards for a touchdown. The Bears showed blitz but dropped into zone coverage, rushing just four.

“[Johnson] has struggled a little bit in part because they were having to play so much man coverage,” Collinsworth said. “But now they don’t, because they have Jeffery Simmons. Now they’re gonna have additional help on the back end.”

The Bears didn’t land the Eagles’ Riq Woolen (14), the Jets’ Nahshon Wright (15) or any other cornerbacks at the deadline. Collins remains intrigued by the Tyrique Stevenson (16), Malik Muhammad (17) and Kyler Gordon (18) because they'll benefit from Simmons' pass rush.

Credit, then, goes to …

Ryan Poles (19). Sunday’s dud didn’t discourage Collinsworth and Tomlin from believing the Bears general manager built a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

“I like the trajectory of that group,” Tomlin said.

Collinsworth has heard enough about Williams’ preparation that he thinks he’ll put the onus on himself — not coach Ben Johnson (20) — to course correct.

“I’m a little hard-pressed to name a roster I like a whole lot better than this one …. ” Collinsworth said. “This is a legit team. I do think Caleb will reel it back in a little bit. I really like them.”

The biggest bye-week bag of ice goes to …

Left guard Joe Thuney (21) and right tackle Darnell Wright (22), the only two Bears to play every snap on either side of the ball. The Bears have lined up on offense 660 times, the most in the league.