Alabama college, university counties shift toward Democrats in midterms

While Democrats saw gains in every Alabama county last week, shifts in counties holding three of the state’s major universities were notable.

In Tuscaloosa County, home of the University of Alabama, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Doug Jones won 54%-45% over Republican gubernatorial nominee Tommy Tuberville, a reversal from 2022, when Republican Gov. Kay Ivey won against Democratic nominee Yolanda Flowers, 62%-34%.

Tuberville won Lee County, home of Auburn University, and Pike County, home of Troy University, but by reduced margins over Ivey’s in 2022. Tuberville got 51% of the vote in Lee County, winning the county by about 1,800 votes out of 54,000 cast. Ivey got 67% of the vote in Lee in 2022.

In Pike County, Tuberville got 52% of the vote, down from Ivey’s 66% in 2022. Tuberville won by a margin of 370 votes out of over 10,000 cast.

Democratic Party chairs attributed the results to the policies of President Donald Trump.

“Local is national and the national is local,” said Jonathan Buchwalter, chair of the Tuscaloosa Democratic Party. “We see a country that elected Donald Trump, we see an Alabama that elected Donald Trump who promised affordability and no new wars. And what we got in the first two years was massive unaffordability and bombing in Iran.”

Republicans said the results are part of a natural political cycle.

“It seems to be the natural ebb and flow of politics,” said Cole Lawson, chair of the Republican Party in Lee County. “I don’t think it is particularly unusual if you look at the historical record of where the country has gone, whether it be a Republican or Democrat presidency. Generally, in a midterm the election swings toward the other party.”

Mitchell Brown, a political science professor at Auburn University, said the results were a statement of popular feeling against the current administration and about affordability issues.

“Things that college students are starting to see, ‘I am going to the grocery store and wait a minute, this costs how much?’ Gas, ‘I want to go to Atlanta and see a concert with my friends, but gas,’” Brown said. “For more recent graduates and who have jobs, ‘Can I afford to get a house?’”

The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University analyzed data from a survey conducted by the NORC Civic Health & Elections Project at the University of Chicago. The survey included more than 110,000 registered voters nationwide who were interviewed in the week leading up to the 2026 midterm elections.

Among young voters, 52% identified the economy and jobs as one of the three most important issues facing the country, followed by health care at 42% and the war in Iran at 27%.

Those issues mirrored the concerns of the electorate. According to a survey from Gallup, a firm that conducts polls, about 87% of registered voters identified the economy as either an extremely important or very important issue. That was followed by healthcare, with 77% saying that was either extremely important or very important. This was the same as the number of people who said the situation in Iran is important.

Alabama voters go to polls with affordability and national issues on their minds

Young voters also shifted toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election.

“In that 2024 election, not only did Trump make serious inroads with nonwhite populations, which scared the heck out of the Democrats, he also made huge gains with young men,” said David A. Hughes, an associate professor of political science at the University of Louisiana Lafayette, who follows politics in Alabama. “Younger voters have, for many decades now, been the primary sources of Democratic votes.”

Tufts reported that Trump received about 47% of the votes of people between 18-29 versus former Vice President Kamala Harris who received the support of 51% of voters from that age bracket.

That estimate was based on a survey conducted by the Associated Press Vote Cast that included interviews with 139,000 registered voters in all 50 states between Oct. 28, 2024 and Nov. 5, 2024.

That was a smaller margin than former President Joe Biden’s 25-point advantage among young voters in 2020. Trump made dramatic gains in 2024 with young men, winning that group 56%-42%.

In last week’s election, according to an analysis based on data taken from NORC Civic Health & Elections Project, Tufts estimated that 66% of voters between 18-29 voted for a Democratic House candidate. Tufts also estimated that about 60% of young men, the demographic group where Trump made most of his gains among youth, voted for the Democratic candidate.

Hughes also noted that college-educated and suburban voters have started to shift toward the Democrats.

“We see the same thing in Alabama, the counties that are better educated, that make more money, those are the ones that swung hard toward the Democrats,” Hughes said.

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Madison County, where the University of Alabama in Huntsville is located, has a median household income of about $86,000 per year, and almost half the population has at least a college degree, according to the U.S. Census. The median income for Alabama overall is about $67,000. In 2022, almost 60% of voters in that county cast their ballots for Ivey. This year, Jones received almost 58% of the vote.

Local party leaders also said that the economy played an important role in the outcome of the races.

“Politics has morphed from this hypothetical, theoretical, thing to something that most people are living in, including our young people,” said Jamie Lowe, chair of the Lee County Democratic Party. “They are paying for gas just like the rest of us, they are paying for groceries just like the rest of us, they are buying a car and looking at inflation, they are looking at the possibility of homeownership and interest rates.”

Lawson also said that many people are upset about the economic climate.

“People generally vote with their pocketbooks, and I don’t think it is any secret right now that things are more expensive right now for most people, me included,” he said. “And you saw that at the ballot box.”

Lawson did not assign blame to Trump, however.

“There is no clear person who is responsible for that, and there is no clear party that is responsible for that, I think like all things, the world goes through phases and shifts, and various other powers that we don’t have any control over, like international affairs and things that are well above my paygrade, all contribute to it.”

Some also pointed to immigration.

“We had several ICE raids that disrupted our community, and on both sides of the aisle that was not attractive,” Lowe said. “Several of them were noticeable, in the middle of the day. That affected how people handled this election for sure.”