Illinois at No. 4 UCLA a mismatch? In college football this nutty season, there might not be any such thing

In a bonkers college football season where up is down, down is up and underdogging it to the tune of a double-digit point spread is just a state of mind, anything can happen.

If we’ve learned anything on the way to Utah and UCLA being the last two unbeaten teams left in the country, it’s that.

Illinois (+10½) at No. 4 UCLA (8 p.m. Friday, Fox 32, 890-AM) might look on the surface like a mismatch, and maybe it’ll turn out to be one. The Bruins are 9-0 for the first time since 1998, one win from tying the school’s single-season record. They rank second in the Big Ten in offense (to 6-3 Illinois’ ninth) and third in defense (to Illinois’ 15th). A team with seeming magic in its bones — it leads the nation with 17 interceptions and 27 takeaways and is plus-14 in turnovers, and has dusted off an injury to quarterback Nico Iamaleava and won four straight with backup Ty Dieffenbach — just keeps doing whatever it must. First-year leader Bob Chesney is closing in on all the coach of the year awards.

“This is a very confident football team we’re playing,” Illini coach Bret Bielema said. “Offensively, defensively, special teams, they’re very confident in what they do. They’ve had nothing but great results.”

Last weekend at Minnesota, the Bruins were tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter before Dieffenbach hit Aidan Mizell for back-to-back 75-yard touchdowns. The senior slinger finished with — go on, have fun doing the math — eight completions for 303 yards.

“Obviously, that won’t work for us,” Bielema said.

So, yeah, mismatch?

Not necessarily. It doesn’t sound possible, but the Illini’s four straight wins ties them for the fourth-longest current streak in the Power 4 conferences. Quarterback Katin Houser is coming off a 292-yard, three-touchdown game against Nebraska in which Collin Dixon — who has a school-record 12 TD catches this season — went off for 129 receiving yards and two more scores. Meanwhile, the defense has come alive, especially in the secondary, since coordinator Bobby Hauck stepped down under enormous pressure in early October and Roger Cooper began pulling the levers.

This isn’t the same Illini team that lost at home to Purdue. Houser is getting serious attention from the NFL, according to Bielema, and sometimes having the better QB is all it takes to make a game a game. The Illini also played last Friday, giving them an extra day of prep over the Bruins, though a long West Coast trip mitigates that somewhat.

In Illinois’ first trip to the Rose Bowl in 20 seasons — back when the Granddaddy was still the Granddaddy — an upset would take 2026 from good to great, at least through 10 games. Can it happen? Sure, maybe, possibly. But will it? Bruins, 27-20.

Other Week 11 picks

All games are Saturday. My picks to cover are listed first, with CFP rankings in effect.

No. 20 Ohio State (-12½) vs. Northwestern (11 a.m., Fix 32, 720-AM): The Buckeyes are a massively disappointing 6-3, same as the Wildcats (minus the “massively disappointing” part). Both teams are operating without their excellent, but injured, starting QBs. Why can’t the Wildcats win at the Horseshoe for the first time since 1971?

“We’re not here just to compete,” coach David Braun said. “We’re here to win games.”

Sounds good. Not happening, though. Buckeyes, 24-7.

No. 18 USC (+10) at No. 9 Indiana (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): Both teams come off a bye week, an advantage to neither side. The Hoosiers are ticked off at having dropped five spots in the rankings without playing, but that doesn’t mean their offensive struggles just go away. Hoosiers by single digits.

No. 23 Arizona (+2½) vs. No. 2 Utah (6:30 p.m., Fox-32): Statistically, these teams are knotted tight. It’s time for Wildcats QB Noah Fifita — a fourth-year starter who has seen it all — to put on a show. Another unbeaten goes down, in keeping with the theme of the season. Wildcats by three.

No. 21 LSU (-4) vs. No. 6 Texas (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Watch the three-loss Tigers knock off the two-loss Longhorns and let the ridiculous SEC babble about how both teams belong in the playoff begin. LSU, 30-23.

My favorite favorite: No. 5 Notre Dame (-29½) vs. Boston College (2:30 p.m., NBC 5, 780-AM): This might smell like a trap game to some after the Irish’s hugely important win against Miami, but staying locked in has been a November strength on Marcus Freeman’s watch. Irish come out fast and keep the pedal down.

My favorite underdog: Texas A&M (+2½) vs. No. 8 Tennessee (2 p.m., ESPN): The Aggies lost at Alabama and at South Carolina their last two times out but actually led entering the fourth quarters of both games. They’re also 4-1 at Kyle Field, always one of the tougher environments for visiting teams in college football. In other words, don’t let A&M’s 4-5 record lull you into thinking the Vols are on easy street. Besides, this is the kind of game favorites around the country have been losing all season.

Last week: 6-3 straight-up, 7-2 against the spread.

Season to date: 52-21 straight-up, 44-29 against the spread.