U.S. Senate chiefs of staff peel back layers of election in terms of causes and consequences

TOPEKA — A pair of U.S. Senate chiefs of staff say failure of Republicans to retain control of Congress hinged on President Donald Trump’s inability to outrun an affordability crisis prompting the stampede of independents and Democrats voting in the November election.

Reema Dodin, chief of staff to Democratic U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii, and J.T. Jezierski, chief of staff to newly reelected Republican U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, peeled back layers of the midterm election resulting in Democrats crafting majorities in the Senate and House. They were part of a program Wednesday at the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas.

“We, on the Republican side … may have thought it might be a long night, but it actually wasn’t. The margins were pretty decisive,” said Jezierski, who worked in the administration of President George W. Bush.

“You can do all the analysis you want, but high gas prices are high gas prices,” he said. “The president won two years ago, this is my personal opinion, on two measurable statistics: border crossings and affordability. Those statistics are still measurable. The border is one thing, but on affordability, I just think that’s tough to get around.”

Dodin, who was deputy director of legislative affairs for President Joe Biden, said the foremost determinant of the 2026 election was affordability. Other factors were candidate quality, immigration enforcement overreach and the Trump administration’s “outlandish and in-your-face” corruption, she said.

Dodin and Jezierski said the war initiated by Trump against Iran was a factor in undermining GOP turnout and motivating Democratic and unaffiliated voters.

“What we were seeking in a lot of polling was even the president’s own supporters from two years ago felt the war was a betrayal of the philosophy he had espoused on the campaign trail,” Dodin said.

The final composition of the Senate and House in Washington, D.C., has yet to be determined as votes continued to be counted. At this juncture, Democrats secured 55 seats to Republican’s 44 in the Senate with a Democrat leading in Alaska’s undecided race. The House would have at least 255 Democrats and 168 Republicans with a dozen House races not finalized.

Jezierski and Dodin agreed the Nov. 3 outcome was consequential because the final two years of Trump’s presidency would occur with both chambers led by Democrats and lawmakers under intense pressure from voters to deal with inflation in terms of fuel, health care and grocery costs. Progress on basic appropriations bills and complex policy shifts could be made if Congress and the president engaged in meaningful negotiations, they said.

“In all this, the president is the first mover in that he will set the mood and he will sort of set the tone of the political marketplace,” Dodin said. “There are deals and bills to be had. There are going to be some places where there is a lot of disagreement. The fact that the president accepted last Tuesday’s results was huge.”

Dodin said interplay between Trump and Congress during the lame-duck period between the election and when Republicans surrendered power in January would influence the approach of Democrats in 2027.

Jezierski said he wasn’t certain what to expect from the Senate’s evolving relationship with the White House.

“We have to work together,” he said. “We absolutely have to do that.”

The chiefs of staff indicated the ballot-box results offered both political parties an opportunity to recalibrate heading into the presidential election cycle.

“As a country, we are all different post-President Trump,” Dodin said. “From 2016 to now … the voters are different, the electorate is different, the way politics is done is different. The next two years, it will be a chance for both parties to decide, ‘What are we post-Trump?’ ”

The two-year window could lead to a free-for-all among Republican and Democratic candidates seeking to replace Trump, they said. Dodin suspected both parties could field as many as 20 candidates for president.

In response to questions from moderator Colleen Shogan, the archivist of the United States under President Biden, Dodin said she longed for more robust Senate floor debate on legislative issues.

“I wish we were on the floor more doing live debate,” she said. “They’re from 50 different states. They should have different perspectives.”

Jezierski said it was time for the nation to reclaim civility in politics. The climate had grown too hostile as elected officials and their families were placed at risk, he said. He pointed to abusive communications fielded by members of Capito’s staff.

“The comments and calls and the things that people say to our team, it’s despicable,” Jezierski said. “It’s absolutely unbelievable what has happened and what people do. Our discourse has gotten so bad. I have no respect for someone who can curse and yell at a 22-year-old kid who just graduated from college because you’re angry about something.”