College football picks, predictions: Florida State still has firepower to cover

There may be only three games on Friday, but there’s a lot of power, if you know what I mean.

And what I mean is that all three games feature teams from power conferences and are our first such matchups of the week: Florida State vs. Pitt from the ACC, Illinois vs. UCLA from the Big Ten and Houston vs. Colorado from the Big 12. After six MACtion games, an American game and a Sun Belt game, some crisper football is a welcome sight.

The ACC clash offers my favorite play, but the Big 12 will also get a little love here.

Florida State vs. Pitt (-3½, 52½)

4 p.m. Friday, ESPN

Maybe the Panthers have figured things out, but the loss of Mason Heintschel definitely threw a wrench into their season. Holden Geriner has just four touchdown passes and two interceptions with a 58.3 percent completion rate, and Corey Dailey has been even worse with a 48.6 percent completion rate. Dailey started against Boston College and struggled. Geriner has started the past two games.

After racking up 7.22 yards per play in the first month of the season, Pitt fell to just 5.36 in October. The Florida State defense has been an unmitigated disaster, but it might get a little bit of a break in this one. Pitt’s offensive efficiency without Heintschel has taken a giant nosedive, and the running game isn’t particularly explosive. Against FBS opponents, the Panthers have rushed for just 4.35 yards per carry.

The loss of Ousmane Kromah definitely put a damper on the season for the Seminoles, but Ashton Daniels continues to be a viable dual-threat quarterback. One staple of Pitt’s defense has always been its ability to generate sacks. The Panthers have 25 in just nine games this season. But Daniels at least has some hope of evading the rush, even if he has been sacked 21 times.

Daniels’ athleticism has helped create explosive plays in the passing game. The Seminoles have averaged nearly 15 yards per catch this season. When Pitt doesn’t get to the quarterback, it’s been a struggle. The Panthers rank 121st in passing yards allowed and 91st in yards allowed per pass attempt.

Having a quarterback capable of improvisation gives Florida State an edge over what Pitt has right now. Geriner offers little in that regard, and Dailey is an unproven commodity if he gets called into action. While Pitt’s 34-11 win over Georgia Tech looks impressive, Geriner completed just 13 of 30 passes. Pitt’s running game could win the day against Florida State, but the Seminoles seem live in this one.

Pick: Florida State +3½

Houston (-9, 51) at Colorado

7:15 p.m. Friday, ESPN

The Buffs have not had the stuff in conference play, dropping five of their six games. But they’ve been truly blown out only a couple of times, by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Houston’s offense hasn’t been terribly explosive of late, and the Cougars have played three one-score games in a row. Houston’s defense has allowed nearly a full yard more per play than Colorado’s in Big 12 play.

That makes covering a road spread like this a tough ask. Incredibly, Houston is getting outgained by 0.11 yards per play in conference action, while Colorado is narrowly outgaining opponents by 0.08 yards per play.

Pick: I’ll take my chances with Colorado +9.