College football trends, predictions: Duke, Northwestern have surprises in store

Bruce Marshall is a handicapper for WagerTalk.com. He provides the Review-Journal with college football notes and trends.

UNLV at New Mexico: The Rebels have failed to cover their past three games, and four of their past five have gone over the total. The Lobos are 4-0 outright and against the spread in Albuquerque. Jason Eck is 10-0 outright at home since arriving at New Mexico last year and 7-2 against the spread in his past nine home games. Overall, Eck is 15-6 against the spread since last season. The Lobos’ past four games have gone under the total. Edge: New Mexico and a slight lean to the under, based on team and totals trends.

Duke at Miami: The Blue Devils have covered their past four games as underdogs since late last season. The Hurricanes are just 1-3 against the spread in their past four games this season. Their past four games have gone over the total. Edge: Duke and a slight lean to the over, based on recent results and totals trends.

Wake Forest at SMU: The Demon Deacons have won their past six games outright and covered their past seven. Wake Forest is also 15-4 against the spread in its past 19 games since early last season and 13-2 in its past 15 against ACC opponents.

Northwestern at Ohio State: The Buckeyes are just 2-4 against the spread in their past six games and 0-3 as Big Ten home teams. The Wildcats are 16-11 against the spread as underdogs since coach David Braun took over in 2023. Edge: Slight lean to Northwestern, based on recent trends.

Syracuse at NC State: Syracuse has quietly covered four of its past five games despite going 2-3 outright in those games, and three straight as an ACC road team since late last season. The Wolfpack are just 2-6 against the spread against FBS opponents. Edge: Slight lean to Syracuse, based on recent trends.

Georgia Tech at Clemson: The Yellow Jackets have lost four straight games outright and against the spread, with the past three losses coming by at least 22 points. Georgia Tech is also on a 2-12 skid against the spread since mid-2025. Four of the Tigers’ past six games have gone under the total. Edge: Clemson and a slight lean to the under, based on recent results and totals trends.

Nebraska at Rutgers: The Cornhuskers’ past four games and six of their past seven have gone under the total. Since Matt Rhule arrived in 2023, Nebraska is 3-8-2 against the spread in the final four games. The Scarlet Knights have covered three of their past four games as Big Ten home teams. Edge: Slight lean to the under and Rutgers, based on totals and team trends.

Alabama at Vanderbilt: Kalen DeBoer is just 4-6 against the spread as an SEC road favorite since taking over Alabama in 2024. The Crimson Tide had failed to cover three straight games before last week’s win over LSU. Clark Lea is 14-5-1 against the spread as an underdog with Vanderbilt since 2024, including 3-2 this season. Edge: Vanderbilt, based on team trends.

Kansas State at TCU: The Wildcats have struggled lately, losing and failing to cover five of their past six games. Sonny Dykes, however, has lost and failed to cover his past three meetings with Kansas State since the 2022 Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs’ first seven games against FBS opponents went under the total before last week’s game at Arizona. Edge: The under and a slight lean to TCU, based on totals and recent trends.

Tennessee at Texas A&M: The Volunteers are just 3-6 against the spread as SEC road teams since early 2024. Six of their past seven games have gone under the total, as have five of Texas A&M’s past six. The Aggies are just 3-7 against the spread in their past 10 games against FBS opponents. Edge: The under, based on totals trends.

Missouri at Georgia: The Tigers are just 1-5 against the spread in their past six games as underdogs under Eli Drinkwitz. Kirby Smart is on a 12-7 run against the spread since early 2025 after a 9-20 skid. Edge: Georgia, based on recent trends.

USC at Indiana: The Trojans are just 1-10 against the spread as Big Ten road team in games outside California since entering the league in 2024. The Hoosiers, however, have struggled against the spread, going just 1-8, with their lone cover coming at Rutgers. They are 0-6 against the spread in Bloomington. Indiana’s past four games have gone under the total. Edge: Slight lean to the under, based on totals trends.

Baylor at BYU: The Bears are 3-0 against the spread as Big 12 road teams and 6-1 against Power Four opponents. The Cougars have failed to cover their past three games after starting 6-0 outright and against the spread. Edge: Baylor, based on recent trends.

Michigan at Oregon: The Wolverines are just 2-7 against the spread under Kyle Whittingham, with their only Big Ten cover coming in overtime against Indiana. Michigan is on a 4-14 skid against the spread since early 2025. Seven of the Wolverines’ nine games have gone under the total. The Ducks have rallied from a midseason slump to win and cover their past two games in impressive fashion. Edge: Oregon and a slight lean to the under, based on recent results and totals trends.

UNR at Northern Illinois: The Wolf Pack’s past three games and four of their past five have gone under the total. The Huskies have lost and failed to cover their past five games in DeKalb since late 2025. Edge: Slight lean to UNR and the under, based on team and totals trends.

Ole Miss at Oklahoma: Brent Venables is just 3-6 against the spread as an SEC home coach since Oklahoma entered the conference in 2024. Edge: Slight lean to Ole Miss, based on team trends.

Washington at Michigan State: The visiting team has covered 10 straight Washington regular-season games since late 2025. The Huskies are 3-0 against the spread on the road during that stretch. The Spartans have covered three of their past four games, and seven of their past eight have gone under the total since mid-September. Edge: Washington and the under, based on team and totals trends.

Utah at Arizona: The Utes have won 15 straight games outright and are 9-1 against the spread in their past 10 since late in the 2025 season. The Wildcats are 7-2 outright but just 1-5 against the spread in their past six games as underdogs since early 2025. Edge: Utah, based on team trends.

Texas at LSU: The Longhorns were fortunate last week at Missouri, but that was just their second cover as SEC road team since entering the conference in 2024. They are 2-7 against the spread in those games. Edge: Slight lean to LSU, based on extended trends.

Stanford at Virginia Tech: The Cardinal have struggled on the road, going 0-4 outright and against the spread. Each loss has been by at least 28 points, and Stanford has allowed at least 52 points in each of its past three road games. The Cardinal are 1-10 against the spread away from Palo Alto since late in the 2024 season. Edge: Slight lean to Virginia Tech, based on team trends.

South Carolina at Arkansas: The Gamecocks are surging down the stretch, as they did in 2024, with wins and covers in their past four games. South Carolina is also 9-3 against the spread in SEC road games since mid-2023. Edge: South Carolina, based on team trends.