Pick Six Previews: Baylor to keep it close, but BYU will pull away late for a win

PROVO — Red zone conversions and turnovers are always important, but they have especially defined the Holy War the past few seasons. Last week's 2026 edition — the first time BYU and Utah met as top 10 teams — certainly followed that script.

Utah cashed in four touchdowns on their five red zone trips. Their quarterback, Devon Dampier, threw two scores and ran in the other two. But BYU scored just 13 points on their five red zone spots — a touchdown, two field goals, and two picks.

The turnover margin was also all Utah, as the Utes defense picked off Bear Bachmeier four times — including the decisive goal-line pick by Trey Reynolds to secure the 28-20 Utah victory. BYU's three-game streak in the series was snapped and the undefeated Utes stormed the field and partied like it was 2008.

Even with their second loss, BYU still remained in the top 10 of the latest College Football Playoff rankings but face another test against Baylor (1:30 p.m., FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): BYU 55.3 (28th of 68 Power 4) | Baylor 44.9 (48th)
2025 season: BYU 63.4 (19th) | Baylor 46.9 (43rd)
2026 season: BYU 63.7 (22nd) | Baylor 61.1 (28th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish second in the Big 12 race, with a No. 17 spot in the preseason top 25. After the 6-0 start and Notre Dame win, BYU moved up to No. 11 but have fallen down to No. 22 with the pair of losses to UCF and Utah.

I selected Baylor to finish 11th in the Big 12, and they have outperformed those expectations, even through the midseason firing of head coach Dave Aranda who finished a flat 40-40 in his tenure. The team is playing tough for interim Joe Klanderman and are 6-3 overall and just outside the current Game Grader top 25.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense: 25th of 68 Power 4
Baylor defense: 24th of 68 Power 4

BYU has certainly missed their All-Big 12 running back LJ Martin, who has been recovering from an injury and has missed four full games and had minimal impact in the Utah game. Without him, their traditional run game has struggled, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier has had to take on even more of the responsibility.

The good news is that Martin is now listed as probable, which should translate to a more normal workload.

My opponent-adjusted rushing stats show the contrast of BYU with and without Martin in the backfield. With Martin (first three games), BYU ranked fifth in my opponent-adjusted rushing, but in the five games without him they are just 45th of 68 Power 4 teams.

To BYU's credit, they have shown big-play ability on the outside with Legend Glasker (78 yards/game) whose 18.0 yards/catch average ranks sixth in FBS among receivers with minimum 30 receptions. The tight end pair of Walker Lyons and Roger Saleapaga has been productive, and the offensive line was named one of 10 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award.

Baylor's defense ranks 17th in FBS, allowing just 17 points/game, and has held every opponent below their yards/play average. They are seventh in negative play rate, which tracks disruption behind the line of scrimmage (sacks, tackles-for-loss), and very quietly this is a solid defense.

Baylor with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Baylor offense: 36th of 68 Power 4
BYU defense: 5th of 68 Power 4

Baylor scored 41 points on UCF and 42 last week against Iowa State in their two wins after firing Aranda. Former five-star DJ Lagway, who struggled at times this season, is currently ranked dead last in the Big 12 in QB rating, but those past two games were flawless (10 yards/attempt, 6 touchdowns, zero picks).

Those performances came against two of the weaker defenses in the conference, while BYU is the Big 12's top-ranked unit.

Gavin Freeman has been phenomenal for Baylor and virtually the whole offense runs through him. Freeman has 69 receptions so far this season — a Big 12 best — which is more catches than Baylor's next four receivers combined.

BYU's pass defense is strong enough to eliminate Baylor's top weapon Freeman, Baylor's run offense has below-average rankings, and there is no guarantee that their other receivers step up. While Baylor's offense may be hot the past two games, BYU's defense has been consistently elite for the better part of two seasons.

Game prediction

BYU outgained Utah, but the four turnovers — two at the goal-line — cost them their second Big 12 loss. They are now in a crowded field for the title game spots. I trust head coach Kalani Sitake to refocus his team despite the high-stakes, emotional loss, and they will avoid the usual "hangover" spot.

With that said, Baylor is red hot and has been playing even better since firing their head coach. Look for Baylor to compete in the first half; but after halftime, BYU's elite defense will neutralize Freeman and win the line of scrimmage against Baylor's ineffective run game. It will be close, but BYU will get back in the win column.

BYU 27 | Baylor 24