Lauren Boebert lost one of the most pro-Trump districts any House Republican lost this year

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert’s loss to Democrat Eileen Laubacher in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District makes her one of the worst performing incumbent Republican members of Congress in the midterm election relative to how President Donald Trump fared in 2024, according to a Colorado Sun analysis of national election results. 

Trump won the 4th Congressional District in 2024 by just over 18 percentage points, according to The Downballot. 

As of Friday, only one other incumbent Republican U.S. representative — Scott DesJarlais of Tennessee — was trailing in a district where Trump won by a greater margin two years ago. 

But even comparing Boebert’s race to that one is a bit apples and oranges because DesJarlais’ was running in a district that was redrawn ahead of this year’s election. 

Voters in DesJarlais’ new district, redrawn by Tennessee Republicans to give them a better chance at winning more of the state’s congressional seats, backed Trump by a margin of 24 percentage points in 2024. The district’s electorate was previously even more supportive of Trump.

The Sun’s analysis shows how remarkable Boebert’s loss is even amid the blue wave that swept across the nation this year. While voters in other districts and states shifted further to the left this year, the Republicans in those places almost universally started off in weaker positions. 

Among states poised to send Democrats to the U.S. Senate this year after favoring Trump in 2024, only Mississippi — where Democrat Scott Colom beat Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith — elected the president two years ago by a greater margin (about 23 points) than Trump won Colorado’s 4th District. 

Boebert was already on shakier ground than Trump in the 4th District, which includes Douglas County and much of the Eastern Plains, heading into this year’s election. 

She won the district by 11.6 percentage points two years ago, far underperforming the president.

Inside Boebert’s loss

Voters in the 4th District swung to the left by about 12.5 percentage points in 2026 compared to 2024, handing Laubacher a narrow victory.

Six counties within the 4th District swung even further to the left than the district as a whole: Arapahoe (20 points), Morgan (16 points), Adams (15 points), Phillips (14 points), Larimer (13 points) and Weld (13 points).

Only one county — Kiowa, with its small population —swung to the right, by about 3 points. 

Overall, about 64,000 fewer people voted in this year’s election in the 4th District than did in 2024.

Libertarian Party candidate Douglas Mangeris captured about 12,700 votes, more than the margin by which Laubacher won. Mangeris did best in Crowley County, where he captured about 5% of the vote.

In 2024, the vote total for all third-party candidates, 19,345, was not close to the margin by which Boebert won, 51,964.