Experts discuss implications of Texas’ blue wave

WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - After Texas flipped blue in the midterm elections, political observers are discussing what the longterm implications of the elections could mean for Democrats and Republicans in the state.

The GOP stronghold delivered numerous high-profile wins for Democrats including a U.S. Senate seat, the governorship and control of the state house. That’s led some to say that the state has turned blue.

“The scope and scale of the Democratic victories here is something that nobody was predicting,” said Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin.

The victories came in the largest Republican state in the nation and ended Democrats 32-year losing streak for statewide races. Democratic National Committee leaders now say the political tides in Texas have turned in their favor.

DNC says Texas has gone blue

“I think by any definition of the metric, Texas has gone blue,” said Libby Schneider, DNC deputy executive director. “And I think what we saw last Tuesday was a referendum on Republicans having almost complete control for 30 years in Texas and not getting a whole heck of a lot of done for Texans.”

The party has been targeting Texas and other Republican-leaning states in the region as part of its new southern strategy. The strategy aims to gain ground as more people continue to move to those states.

“I think what it tells us is that especially as we reached 2032 and we reached the next census and population is moving to states like Texas and to the south, that it just sort of reinforces what we’ve long believed here under Ken Martin’s DNC, which is that the South is the future and now the South is the present,” Schneider said.

Cornyn disputes shift

Not everyone is convinced one election means the state’s politics have shifted.

“You know, Texas is not a blue state, and I don’t even think it’s a purple state,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) on Wednesday.

Presidential election outlook

One question is whether Democrats could win Texas in a presidential election year. Blank said that could take a lot of work.

“Democrats are certainly going to say that Texas is in play, because Republicans are going to have to spend a lot of money and time defending what really is a foundation piece of their electoral college strategy,” Blank said. “A much more open question is whether Democrats are willing to commit the kind of time and resources necessary to compete in a state like Texas.”

Blank said the state is more competitive now. He said it could be an uphill battle for Democrats because of the breakdown of registered party members.

“The idea that Democrats did in one election, what it took Republicans three to accomplish most of is a historical and unprecedented. So it makes the question more valid,” Blank said. “But it also leads us to remind ourselves that there are still more Republican voters in Texas. A big part of the Democratic win here was not just about overwhelming turnout, but it was also about overwhelming Republican disengagement. And when those Republican voters become reengaged, what does it look like? And that we just don’t know yet.”

Investment in other states

Democratic Party leaders also said they plan to invest more in other Republican states across the South, including Florida, Alabama and Louisiana.