College football best bets, predictions: Bubble set to burst on Miami

Here are Wes Reynolds’ Week 11 college football best bets:

Duke (+14, -120) at Miami (Florida)

This is the “bubble burst” game for Miami after losing its first game of the season last week in South Bend. The Hurricanes did rally in the second half but still fell 31-24 to Notre Dame. Nevertheless, Miami is still undefeated in ACC play (6-0) and very much in the driver’s seat for the ACC Championship Game.

Heisman co-favorite Darian Mensah will get to face his old team this week as Duke comes into town. Duke’s head coach Manny Diaz, a Miami native, was the U’s head coach from 2019-2021 but was fired after three seasons.

Miami leads the nation in scoring offense at 45 points per game, but it is a step below its high standard without WR Malachi Toney. Duke’s defense ranks fifth in scoring at 13 ppg and has held five of its nine opponents to single digits. That certainly will not happen here, but Duke will certainly make Miami work for those points and be able to at least slightly limit explosives.

Diaz is 12-4 against the spread as an away ’dog for his career, and the Blue Devils are a dangerous opponent for Miami to face after putting everything into the Notre Dame game last week.

SMU (-115 ML) vs. Wake Forest

Wake Forest is currently one spot from the top 12 at No. 13 in the CFP Rankings. The Demon Deacons have crushed their last five opponents by a cumulative score of 264-31. On Thursday, Wake head coach Jake Dickert signed a long-term contract extension.

Everything is rolling for Wake Forest as the Deacs rank No. 1 in EPA/Play, and top 10 in Success Rate, Yards/Play, Havoc percentage, and several others. Yet, they are an underdog here to SMU?

The Mustangs are 7-2 and find themselves unranked. However, SMU is off its most impressive victory of the season, putting up 51 points and 569 yards on what had been a solid Virginia Tech defense.

SMU QB Kevin Jennings has certainly had his issues with turnovers, but he has been much better at home in Dallas with a 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio versus a slightly above 1-to-1 on the road.

Wake Forest is on a 7-0 ATS run, and they’ve won their past five games against subpar competition by 46.6 ppg and 292 ypg, but they only beat Louisville by three and Purdue by two in OT in earlier road games.

SMU is 11-0 straight up and 8-3 ATS at home in conference games since joining the ACC in 2024.

Texas A&M (+2.5) vs. Tennessee

This is the Smelly Cat line of the week. Tennessee jumped up five spots to No. 8 in the CFP in a 34-6 victory over Kentucky that was a bit deceiving. The score was just 13-6 heading into the fourth quarter. The yardage was even, but Kentucky did commit three turnovers and were stopped on downs twice.

On the other hand, Texas A&M earned 26 first downs, put up 457 yards, and did not commit a turnover. Yet, they only scored nine points.

It was arguably the “Bad Beat of the Week” on the Aggies +7.5. They put up those offensive numbers and failed to cover in a 17-9 loss, as they saw LaNorris Sellers run for a 41-yard touchdown on a gimpy ankle to give South Carolina the victory.

The Aggies are back at home playing their first SEC home game in well over a month. They are arguably the most disappointing team of the season as they began the preseason ranked No. 8 in the AP poll. Holmon Wiggins was promoted to offensive coordinator after Collin Klein departed to return to his alma mater and become the head coach at Kansas State. Wiggins and the staff have tried to turn QB Marcel Reed into a pocket passer, and the results have not been there, with Reed posting career lows in completion percentage, yards/attempt, and QB Rating. At 4-5. A&M has nothing to lose and might let Reed get out of the pocket to make plays with his legs and throw more on the run, since he might have to anyway. Tennessee leads the nation with 39 sacks.

Tennessee has everything to play for, and Texas A&M is just fighting for any bowl eligibility at this point, and the line is just 2.5? Things that make you go hmmmmm.