NFL betting contest: Cousins trade makes Vikings-Packers line move

Picks are locked in for Week 10 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest at VSiN.

With more than 18,000 selections submitted again this week, we can get a pretty good idea of the public’s most popular plays. We use lines from Circa Sports as of 10 a.m. Fridays, and all contestants make their picks from those numbers. You can read more about the contest rules here.

Let’s look at the most popular NFL spreads and totals for Week 10. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but they have the highest percentage of spread picks for their respective games.

Lions -2½ (89 percent) vs. Patriots (641/719)

The “fade Drake Maye against good teams” angle is alive and well, even overseas. This is the early game in Munich on Sunday, and the quirks of an international matchup weren’t enough to keep the Joes from backing the Lions.

Personally, I’d say the Patriots not getting to +3 despite the strength of that narrative (or trend, if you prefer) is a concerning sign for those backing the Motor City Kitties.

We’ll see. The Patriots were pummeled by a Packers team the Lions have already beaten, and we’re all in agreement that the NFC North is the best division in football this season.

Seahawks -6½ (87 percent) at Raiders (372/426)

It’s all chalk with the top three picks this week, which is hardly surprising, and this is the largest favorite of the group.

The Joes apparently don’t believe in Fernando Mendoza, who will make his first NFL start against the reigning Super Bowl champions. Sam Darnold is out again for Seattle, but Drew Lock protected the football and wasn’t sacked against the Cardinals.

In concert with the Drake Maye-versus-good-teams narrative, the Raiders are developing one of their own. They are 4-5 with victories over the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints and Jets, who own a combined record of 6-27. Their losses came against the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams and 49ers, who own a combined record of 33-12.

And nobody expected the Rams to be 5-4 at this point in the season.

Packers -2½ (85 percent) vs. Vikings (560/661)

How much of a difference will Kirk Cousins make for Minnesota? We saw roughly a three-point line move when he was acquired to replace Carson Wentz in this week’s matchup with the Packers.

Minnesota’s offense has been objectively terrible, so closing the gap between the league’s most potent defense and one of its least productive offenses should go a long way.

That said, there are reasons for optimism. The Packers shined last week in a big spot against New England, and nobody seems able to stop Matthew Golden and Christian Watson right now.

A strong offense is generally more appealing than a strong defense to recreational bettors, and that’s the case with the Joes here. That said, Green Bay’s defense is getting noticeably better as the season progresses.

Chiefs/Falcons Over 47½ (88 percent) (197/224)

It would appear the Joes participating in this contest aren’t too concerned about what initially looked like a gruesome injury suffered by Patrick Mahomes against the Jets last week.

Mahomes returned to the game and showed no obvious ill effects, but you have to wonder how he felt after the adrenaline and Toradol wore off.

In any event, points are expected on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That’s hardly a surprise given that Overs consistently receive more support than Unders in this contest.

Panthers/Saints Over 49 (86 percent) (74/86)

See? I almost worry for Under bettors when we see expectations for a low-scoring game in this contest.

The Joes are looking at a Panthers team that has allowed points in bunches and a Saints team capable of putting up points, and they think this game will get into the 50s. Carolina has been hit with a seemingly endless string of injuries in the secondary, which is a lot to overcome in today’s NFL.

Interestingly, Panthers +2½ is also one of the more popular spread plays. I realize there’s a correlation between a high-scoring game and an increased win probability for Carolina given how the season has unfolded, but that one caught me a little off guard.

Perhaps it’s the age-old “fade the team coming off an overtime game” angle. The Saints played nearly an entire fifth quarter against the Browns last week.

Patriots/Lions Over 49½ (85 percent) (135/159)

I’m genuinely shocked this wasn’t the most popular total.

Any time there’s a wave of support for the Lions, you tend to see a corresponding wave of support for the Over. There’s a belief that Detroit cannot win a low-scoring game, so if the environment supports points, it’s considered the right type of game for the Lions.

We’ll find out. The Patriots aren’t what they were defensively last season, largely because of a much tougher schedule, but they’ve still allowed only 23 points per game, while the Lions have allowed 23.6.

Given that Detroit has played three consecutive games well below this total since its bye week, could this be a misguided opinion?